A new impact assessment on eSAF, developed together with Hydrogen Cluster Finland, Finnair, and AFRY, examines how Finland and the Nordic region can build a leading position in the emerging eSAF market. The analysis brings together economic, industrial, and policy perspectives to assess pathways for scaling hydrogen-based aviation fuels.
The development of eSAF is driven by European regulation. The EU ReFuelEU Aviation regulation sets binding targets for increasing the use of sustainable aviation fuels, driving demand for eSAF from 2030 onwards. At the same time, upcoming policy revisions tend to affect investment decisions and increase uncertainty across the eSAF value chain, highlighting the need for policy predictability.
Aviation is a hard to abate sector where electrification is not a viable solution for long distance travel, and liquid fuels will remain necessary. The sector must therefore find alternative ways to reduce emissions. Today, sustainable aviation fuels are produced mainly from waste-based feedstocks, which are limited in availability. eSAF offers a scalable alternative. However, production costs remain significantly higher than emission reductions in other sectors and compared to fossil jet fuel, making market entry dependent on targeted support and risk sharing mechanisms.
According to the study, eSAF presents a significant opportunity for economic growth and industrial renewal, particularly in the Nordic region. Achieving 60,000 tonnes of eSAF production in Finland by 2030, around 10% of estimated EU demand, could generate approximately €410 million in annual added value for the national economy and support around 510 jobs annually. The construction phase alone could create up to 11,000 person years of employment. The study also highlights that eSAF production multiplies value across the hydrogen and e fuel value chain, linking fuel production with renewable electricity generation and CO2 capture.
Finland and the Nordics as competitive leaders
The Nordics are well positioned to lead this development. Finland offers strong structural conditions for eSAF production, including access to renewable electricity, available biogenic CO2 and a reliable energy system. These factors make the region one of the most competitive locations in Europe for eSAF production, while also enabling the development of an export-driven hydrogen and e fuels industry.
Realising this opportunity requires coordinated action across the value chain. Market creation remains a key challenge, and launching eSAF production will require targeted national policy measures to mitigate market and offtake risks. Predictable regulation, effective risk sharing between stakeholders, and instruments that support early purchase agreements will be essetial. Increasing the domestic share of eSAF production technologies and CO2 capture solutions is also critical, as it can significantly raise the economic value captured in Finland.
Read and download the study below.
