Energy is behind all the well-being humanity has created throughout its history. It is also behind the worst ecological catastrophe — climate change — we have triggered. Now that we cannot live by robbing fossil resources from the crust of the Earth, we need to decarbonize our energy system and industry.
Our large and sparsely populated country has turned into an asset.
Fortunately, there are many technologies to help us with the transition. Finland is in a prime position to lead this transition as we have abundant energy resources. Our large and sparsely populated country has turned into an asset. We also have strong know-how in low-emission and energy-efficient technologies which we can turn into profitable trade and economic welfare.
To this point almost everyone agrees. There is a need, and we have the solutions. The devil, as usual, is in the details. We have a vague idea of a better future, but our visions are not necessarily grounded on facts.
There are a plethora of different sectoral decarbonization scenarios. Some of them are rather optimistic, but many, if not most, are fairly solid. The challenge lies between the scenarios; different scenarios have conflicting assumptions regarding the use of resources. The same cubic meter of wood cannot be used to produce heat, pulp, carbon sink, biofuels, and construction materials. The same megawatt-hour cannot be used to power data centers, steel mills, and electrolyzers.
What is missing from the debate is a clear boundary between what is physically and technologically possible and what is not.
That boundary is what the Cornerstones of the energy future project is about.
Every future must exist within three layers of constraints. The hardest limits come from the laws of nature: energy balance, thermodynamics, land area, materials. The second layer comes from technology, what we can build and scale. Technological limits move but not very fast. Third set of limits comes from economics as we cannot afford arbitrarily expensive solutions. These limits are softer and more difficult to define than the laws of nature but they are still real.
And our future must fit within all three.
The project explores these constraints in 2030 and 2040. While 2030 is already largely locked, much more is open for 2040. We analyze energy production, distribution, storage, and consumption, as well as key natural resources. Finland is taken as a part of the global community, not as an island.
Cornerstones is an independent project governed by Climate Leadership Coalition, Sitra, ACCC (Atmosphere and Climate Competence Center), Mika Anttonen, and myself (chair). In addition to the project partners, the surrounding group of stakeholders consists of employer and employee associations, key ministries, Fingrid and Gasgrid. The overarching goal is to avoid costly public and private investments that cannot work.
The project’s role is to define the space for what is possible and what is not.
Political and business choices will decide what we do within that space, but those choices should be informed by science, engineering, and resource realities rather than by wishful thinking. Uncertainties are not hidden; they are explicitly mapped.
The first outcome of the project will be a document identifying and describing the most important cornerstones. The report will be delivered during the spring to support the work towards the next government program.
The final outcome will be an open digital model which can be used dynamically to see the impact of different choices. All data, assumptions, and dependencies will be public. Anyone will be able to test scenarios, change assumptions, and discover what happens. The tool will be designed for human and AI use alike, and it will evolve as new data and technologies emerge.
We have already completed dozens of expert interviews to map the territory. While it is too early to draw firm conclusions, one thing is already clear: some constraints are extremely tight, some technologies are highly uncertain, and many of the most important outcomes still depend on choices we make in the coming years.
This is exactly the space where good decisions matter the most.
Read more about the Cornerstones of the Energy Future on the project page.
